Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Dec. 31, 2025
Institute for the Study of War••world
Key Points:
- In 2025, Russian forces increased their rate of advance in Ukraine, seizing 4,831 square kilometers, including regaining 473 square kilometers in Kursk Oblast, but suffered 416,570 casualties, averaging 78 casualties per square kilometer gained.
- Russia employed a new operational template featuring prolonged battlefield air interdiction (BAI) with advanced UAVs, infiltration missions, and mass small group assaults, supported by technological adaptations such as fiber optic and “mothership” drones with extended ranges up to 60 kilometers.
- Despite tactical shifts enabling faster advances, Russian forces failed to achieve key strategic objectives in Donetsk Oblast and buffer zones in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, with Ukrainian defenses, especially
