Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Feb. 25, 2026
Institute for the Study of War • • world
Key Points:
- Russian forces likely completed the capture of Pokrovsk by late January 2026 after a protracted two-year campaign, but have failed to make significant advances beyond the town, undermining Kremlin claims of imminent control over Donetsk Oblast.
- The Kremlin’s reflexive control campaign has influenced divisions within the British- and French-led Coalition of the Willing, with some coalition members reportedly deferring troop deployments in Ukraine pending Russian approval, complicating Western security guarantees.
- Insider reports indicate Russia remains uninterested in meaningful peace negotiations, instead preparing for a protracted conflict and using negotiations as a stalling tactic to shape the battlefield in its favor.
- The Kremlin is intensifying internet censorship efforts, including potential future bans on Telegram and restrictions on VPN
