Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2026
Institute for the Study of War • • world
Key Points:
- Russian Security Council Chair Dmitry Medvedev reaffirmed Russia’s unchanged demands for Ukraine, including Ukraine’s neutrality, demilitarization, denazification, and ceding of annexed territories, while rejecting foreign troop deployments as security guarantees for Ukraine.
- Medvedev issued nuclear warnings tied to Russia’s willingness to use nuclear weapons if threatened, while also signaling willingness to extend the New START arms treaty, linking nuclear diplomacy to concessions on Ukraine.
- Russian forces continue offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, focusing on seizing Lyman and advancing toward Slovyansk, but face delays and lack sufficient reinforcements to meet spring 2026 deadlines.
- Ukraine is collaborating with SpaceX to register and restrict Starlink satellite terminals to counter Russian drone
