Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2026
Institute for the Study of War • • world
Key Points:
- Russian advances in Ukraine slowed significantly from late December 2025 to mid-January 2026 due to worsening winter weather and the end of year-end offensive deadlines, with territorial gains decreasing steadily over this period.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated expansive territorial demands beyond current peace talks, including all of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts, signaling Russia’s rejection of the US-proposed 28-point peace plan and setting a tough stance ahead of possible diplomatic meetings.
- Kremlin officials continue to dismiss US-led peace efforts and reject ceasefire proposals, while simultaneously conducting limited cross-border attacks in northern Ukraine to project a narrative of Russian military momentum despite no major offensive preparations or
