Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2026
Institute for the Study of War••world
Key Points:
- Russian officials accused Ukraine of a drone strike on a hotel and cafe in occupied Khorly, Kherson Oblast, killing at least 28 people including Russian occupation officials, and called for intensified strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure; Ukraine denied targeting civilians and stated the strike targeted a military gathering.
- Ukraine warned Russia is likely preparing a false flag operation to disrupt peace negotiations around Orthodox Christmas, potentially involving attacks on symbolic locations with fabricated evidence implicating Ukraine.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations across multiple fronts in eastern and southern Ukraine, including recent advances near Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and western Zaporizhia Oblast, but made limited confirmed territorial gains elsewhere amid ongoing Ukrainian resistance and counterstrikes.
- Ukraine enhanced its
