Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2026
Institute for the Study of War••nation
Key Points:
- Russian forces continued offensive operations in eastern Ukraine on January 3-4, focusing on northern Kharkiv Oblast, Kupyansk, Slovyansk-Lyman, Siversk, Dobropillya, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Oleksandrivka directions, but made no confirmed advances in most areas.
- In northern Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces attempted to push Ukrainian troops back from the Belgorod border and approach Kharkiv City but faced tactical pauses and only small-scale probing attacks rather than large offensives.
- Russian efforts in the Kupyansk area remain contested, with fewer than 70 Russian servicemembers reportedly left in Kupyansk and ongoing attempts to infiltr
