Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1, 2026

Key Points:

• Russia’s spring-summer 2026 offensive has made minimal operational gains, with a drastically reduced rate of advance compared to June 2025, seizing only 30.42 square kilometers in June 2026 versus 481.25 square kilometers a year earlier, and suffering significantly higher casualties and equipment losses.
• Russian forces’ main territorial gains are concentrated near Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, where slow and costly tactical advances continue, but they remain unable to reverse Ukrainian counterattacks in other key areas like Kupyansk and Oleksandrivka.
• Ukraine has intensified its intermediate- and long-range strike campaigns, conducting over 300 strikes in June 2026 that have severely disrupted Russian logistics, caused fuel shortages, and damaged Russian military assets and infrastructure deep inside Russia, including oil refineries and drone control posts.
• Russia faces growing logistical challenges, including acute fuel shortages on the battlefield and increased reliance on crude oil exports and foreign gasoline imports, notably from India, due to the degradation of its refining capacity from Ukrainian strikes.
• Russian forces continue offensive operations in multiple directions (Kharkiv, Donetsk, and southern axes) but have largely failed to achieve meaningful advances, with Ukrainian forces maintaining defensive positions and conducting effective counterattacks and strikes against Russian logistics and command infrastructure.