Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2026

Key Points:

• Russian Ministry of Defense recruitment is failing to keep pace with rising casualties in Ukraine, with only about 195,000 contract soldiers recruited by mid-2026, less than half of the annual goal of 409,000, leading to lowered recruitment standards and expanded efforts targeting students, foreigners, and residents of occupied Ukraine.
• The Coalition of the Willing reaffirmed on July 13 the need for binding security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace plan, calling for an immediate ceasefire and inclusive peace negotiations involving Ukraine, the US, and Europe, while Russia continues to reject such guarantees and European involvement.
• Western partners, including multiple European countries, signed a declaration to form an Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition to accelerate air defense production for Ukraine, complementing US efforts to license interceptor missile production, aiming to improve Ukraine’s defense against Russian ballistic missile strikes.
• France and Italy granted Ukraine licenses to produce advanced Franco-Italian glide bombs, SCALP cruise missiles, and Aster 30 surface-to-air missiles, with France also committing to deliver Rafale fighter jets and various air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles, bolstering Ukraine’s defense industrial base and strike capabilities.
• Ukrainian forces conducted significant strikes on Russian oil refineries in Salavat and Afipsky, causing fires and damage to critical infrastructure, marking the first attack on the Salavat refinery in 2026 and demonstrating Ukraine’s extended strike reach deep into Russian territory despite Russian air defense efforts.