Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2026

Key Points:

• Russian forces may launch an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) at Ukraine within 24 to 48 hours, with warnings from the Ukrainian Air Force and the U.S.; this would be part of an escalating long-range strike campaign following recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian cities.
• President Putin acknowledged recent battlefield setbacks during Russia Day celebrations but emphasized military technological advancements and social support for troops, aiming to project strength despite ongoing challenges in Ukraine.
• Russian forces continue slow, costly tactical gains in Kostyantynivka after nearly 10 months of fighting, with infiltration missions and partial consolidations, but are unlikely to achieve a rapid operational breakthrough in the Fortress Belt region.
• Russia is constructing at least five long-range drone launch sites near the Belarus border to support drone strikes against Ukraine, potentially exploiting Belarusian airspace and enhancing strike capabilities against western Ukraine and NATO’s eastern flank.
• Ukrainian forces maintain pressure through long-range strikes on Russian logistics and military assets across eastern Ukraine, including Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, disrupting Russian supply lines and thwarting Russian mechanized assaults despite ongoing Russian offensive operations.