Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20, 2026
Institute for the Study of War • • world
Key Points:
- Russian forces have increased mechanized assaults along multiple front sectors since mid-March, likely as preparation for a spring-summer 2026 offensive, with limited armored engagements expected due to shortages and drone threats.
- Ukraine is committed to holding free elections but faces Kremlin refusal to agree to a ceasefire, with Ukrainian officials emphasizing the need for a demarcation line and a six-month ceasefire period before elections can be held.
- Russia continues to delegitimize Ukraine's government by demanding elections as a precondition for peace while refusing ceasefires, with Kremlin officials signaling they may renege on any future agreements.
- Russian intelligence sharing with Iran is reportedly being used as leverage in negotiations with the US, which has rejected Russian proposals related to Iran
