Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2026

Key Points:

• Russian advances in Ukraine have significantly slowed from October 2025 to March 2026, with territorial gains decreasing from an average of 14.9 to 10.66 square kilometers per day, partly due to effective Ukrainian counterattacks and strikes.
• Ukrainian forces have made notable gains, liberating over 400 square kilometers in Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole from January to March 2026, and maintaining control of territory around Kupyansk despite Russian counter-efforts.
• The Kremlin is exerting pressure on Ukraine to cede the remaining unoccupied parts of Donetsk Oblast, despite Russian forces being unable to seize these areas militarily, in an effort to create a false narrative of imminent Russian victory.
• Russia is increasingly resorting to forced covert mobilization through regional decrees requiring businesses to provide recruits, reflecting unsustainable battlefield losses and declining voluntary recruitment rates.
• Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian Baltic Sea ports and oil infrastructure in Leningrad Oblast have caused significant damage, reducing Russia’s oil export capacity and income by over $1 billion in recent weeks.