Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2026

Key Points:

• Russian President Putin presented optimistic economic data for March 2026, citing growth in wholesale and retail trade, industrial production, and low unemployment, but omitted Ministry of Economic Development data showing year-on-year GDP decline and a lowered annual growth forecast.
• Ukrainian intelligence reports Russia's 2026 budget deficit has nearly doubled early in the year due to increased military and social spending, with regional governments also escalating recruitment expenditures, straining federal finances amid tax hikes and rising public debt interest costs.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky revealed Russian plans for potential missile strikes targeting Kyiv's political and military centers, intensified reconnaissance since the Iran conflict, and concerns over reduced Ukrainian Patriot interceptor supplies heightening the missile threat.
• Ukraine maintains a high interception rate (88%) against Russian cruise missiles but lower against ballistic missiles, with Russian missile production continuing rapidly despite sanctions, which if eased, could increase missile strike capabilities against Ukraine.
• On the battlefield, Russian forces continue limited offensive operations in eastern Ukraine with no significant advances, while Ukrainian forces conduct successful counterattacks and mid-range strikes on Russian military assets in multiple occupied regions, including Crimea.