Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 26, 2026

Key Points:

• Russia and Belarus are reportedly preparing to justify Russian drone strikes against Ukraine launched from Belarusian territory, citing Belarusian claims of 116 Ukrainian drone attempts to cross into Belarus in one week, some allegedly targeting Belarusian border infrastructure.
• Russia may use Belarusian territory to conduct continuous drone strikes on Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in western and northwestern Ukraine, increasing precision and range of attacks on critical supply routes from Poland.
• Some Russian officials have downplayed prior threats to strike Kyiv’s political centers, suggesting decision-making hubs are located outside central Kyiv, while another official projected a possible liquidation of Ukraine by November 2026 but without urgency.
• Ukraine’s intensified long-range drone strikes have forced Russian authorities to restrict civilian flights in the Moscow air zone starting June 1, as Russian air defenses struggle to distinguish drones from friendly aircraft.
• On the battlefield, Russian forces continue limited offensive operations in eastern Ukraine without confirmed advances, while Ukrainian forces maintain and expand control in key areas like Lyman and conduct ongoing mid- to long-range strikes on Russian military and logistics targets in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.