Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28, 2026

Key Points:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin likely holds an inflated view of Russia’s military successes in Ukraine due to exaggerated frontline maps from Russian military command, with evidence showing Russian advances are overstated, particularly around Zaporizhia and Kupyansk.
• Russian forces have significantly slowed their rate of advance in 2026 compared to 2025, with only 104 square kilometers seized so far this year versus 1,619 square kilometers last year, despite Kremlin claims of substantial territorial gains.
• Russia is reinforcing air defenses in Moscow City, installing new systems like the Pantsir-SMD on key buildings, in response to Ukraine’s increasing long-range drone strikes targeting Russian rear areas.
• Ukraine continues to conduct effective mid-range strikes on Russian military assets deep behind the frontlines, disrupting logistics and air defenses in occupied territories including Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.
• Sweden pledged a major military support package to Ukraine, including 36 Gripen fighter aircraft and substantial funding for drones and electronic warfare, aiming to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense and counter Russian glide bomb attacks.