Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Sept. 12, 2026

Key Points:

• Ukrainian forces have regained strategic and operational initiative since late 2025, holding Russian forces to near-zero net gains since March 2026 and conducting successful counterattacks in multiple directions, including Kupyansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman.
• Ukrainian advances have disrupted Russian plans to encircle the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast, eliminating a key Russian salient north of Lyman and forcing Russian commanders to reconsider their campaign strategies in the region.
• Russian generals have reportedly requested an additional 800,000 troops from President Putin to sustain and expand offensive operations, but Russia faces significant training and administrative challenges that make rapid large-scale mobilization unlikely.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky continues to advocate for trilateral peace talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US, proposing discussions on unblocking the Black Sea and moratoriums on strikes against critical infrastructure as starting points for negotiations.
• Ukraine’s intensified long-range strike campaign and Western sanctions have severely impaired Russia’s oil refining capacity and exports, with the International Energy Agency reporting a 30 percent reduction in Russian oil processing compared to pre-2022 levels.