‘Something could start as early as October’: Russian authorities are discussing a new wave of mobilization after the State Duma elections

Key Points:

• Contract recruitment in Russia has significantly declined, with daily sign-ups dropping to around 800 in early 2026, the lowest in three years, though it slightly increased to about 1,000 per day in the second quarter.
• Recruiting difficulties have led to reliance on detainees and individuals with poor health and criminal backgrounds, many of whom are deserting or unable to perform effectively, causing constant understaffing in military units.
• To address recruitment challenges and slow military progress, Russian authorities are intensifying propaganda, increasing payments, and misleading recruits about their roles, while contracts allow deployment to any unit.
• The Kremlin is considering a new wave of mobilization, possibly starting after the October 2026 State Duma elections, with preparatory measures underway, though no final decision has been made and various scenarios remain speculative.
• Alternative strategies include rotating reservists currently in rear logistics to active units, potentially replacing mobilized soldiers who would then be demobilized or reassigned to support roles.