SpaceX's Third Quarter Just Ended. Here Are the 3 Numbers That Matter Most for the Stock.

Key Points:

• SpaceX's third quarter marks its first full quarter as a public company, with shares trading around $152, up 13% from the $135 IPO price but down 32% from the 52-week high.
• Starlink reached 12 million subscribers by June, doubling year-over-year, but average revenue per user (ARPU) dropped to $66 monthly, mainly due to international expansion and cheaper plans; Q3 is the first full quarter with recent U.S. price hikes.
• AI-related revenue surged to $2.2 billion in Q2, driven by AI solutions and cloud services, with Anthropic's $1.25 billion monthly contract starting to ramp up; Q3 is the first full quarter reflecting this deal and Google's upcoming $920 million monthly payments.
• SpaceX's Falcon launch cadence slowed to 37 in Q2 from 45 a year earlier, below the 2025 target of 41 launches per quarter, but Starship flights increased, including a successful orbital deployment of 26 Starlink satellites in late September.
• The AI revenue figure is critical, as SpaceX's $23.6 billion AI capital expenditure in H1 2026 faces its first major revenue test with Anthropic's payments in Q3, indicating whether heavy investment translates into timely income.