Storms expected to hit parts of Texas and Kansas on Election Day

Key Points:

• A severe storm system with hurricane-strength winds, tornado risks, hail, and heavy rainfall is expected to hit the central U.S. on Monday and Tuesday, potentially causing power outages especially in North Texas and Oklahoma.
• The weather could influence voter turnout in key Senate races in Texas, Kansas, and parts of the Midwest, with localized heavy rain and flash floods possible on Election Day in areas like the lower Mississippi River valley and Iowa.
• Historical data shows rainfall modestly suppresses voter turnout, reducing it by about 0.8 percentage points per inch of rain above average, but this effect has diminished due to the rise of early and mail-in voting.
• Early voting rates vary by state, with only about 20% of Texans voting in person on Election Day compared to higher percentages in Minnesota and Kansas, making weather disruptions potentially more impactful in some regions.
• Experts caution that rain is no longer a major factor in determining election outcomes, and it is difficult to predict which political party might benefit or be harmed by weather-related turnout changes.