Strait of Hormuz reopening may take weeks

Key Points:

• The Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen following a memorandum of understanding signed by U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, but clearing the backlog of ships could take weeks or months due to complex logistical and security challenges.
• Industry experts predict a phased and cautious restart of maritime traffic, with priority likely given to oil tankers and LNG carriers, while container shipments may face longer delays amid unresolved operational questions.
• Approximately 118 tankers are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf, and clearing this backlog could take 10 to 15 days, though full recovery of throughput depends on factors such as naval safety certifications, insurance reinstatement, and mine clearance.
• Insurance underwriters require evidence of a stable and predictable operating environment before resuming coverage, and elevated premiums and security concerns, including mine risks, may slow the normalization of shipping traffic.
• Goldman Sachs has lowered its oil price forecast following the deal announcement, anticipating Brent crude prices around $80 per barrel in late 2026, though near-term prices may remain volatile as supply recovery and shipping operations gradually stabilize.