Strong El Niño may stretch to 2028 as UN warns climate change to smash heat records in next 5 years

Key Points:

• The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) projects a 75% chance that the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement, with a 91% chance that at least one year will surpass this limit and an 86% chance of breaking the hottest-year record set in 2024.
• The Arctic is expected to warm nearly 1.66°C by 2030, about 3.5 times faster than the global average, leading to continued shrinking of summer sea ice and significantly impacting global climate systems.
• A strong El Niño event, likely to persist until 2028, is expected to exacerbate global temperatures and increase wildfire risks, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Amazon, which faces hotter, drier conditions that threaten its role as a carbon sink.
• Extreme heatwaves, such as those recently experienced in Europe, are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change, with cities largely unprepared for the escalating impacts on public health and infrastructure.
• The Amazon basin and Africa’s Sahel region face contrasting climate threats: the Amazon risks intensified drought and wildfires, while the Sahel may experience increased rainfall and flooding, highlighting the diverse and severe regional impacts of global warming.