Super El Niño could cause 450,000 heat deaths by February

Key Points:

• A new report from the Climate Impact Lab warns that nearly 451,000 people worldwide could die from El Niño-driven extreme heat between June 2026 and February 2027, in addition to usual heat-related deaths.
• The current El Niño event is expected to raise global land temperatures by 1.2°C above normal, causing 44% more extreme heat days and representing climate change effects projected for 20 years from now.
• The most affected regions will be in the Global South, with Nigeria projected to suffer the highest number of heat deaths (31,400), followed by Indonesia, Sudan, India, Brazil, and the United States with about 3,500 deaths.
• The report, though not yet peer-reviewed, uses established methods and urges immediate policy actions such as heat warnings, health plans, cooling centers, and expanded healthcare to mitigate the death toll.
• Researchers emphasize that this El Niño event is a warning of future climate conditions and stress the need for long-term adaptation strategies to avoid ongoing emergency situations as extreme heat becomes more common.