Super El Niño likely to mean even wetter California winter

Key Points:

• New climate model data from the National Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) and European Seasonal Forecasting System 5 (SEAS5) indicate a wetter-than-expected winter for California, with rainfall likely exceeding 150% of normal statewide.
• Coastal areas, including Sacramento, the Bay Area, and Southern California, could see rainfall totals doubling their usual winter averages, with some northern coastal mountains receiving over 30 inches of precipitation.
• Snowfall is expected to be heavier at higher elevations, particularly in the Klamath Mountains and Sierra Nevada, despite a generally warmer winter due to El Niño, with January predicted as the peak month for both rain and snow.
• El Niño, currently the strongest and most east-based on record for this time of year, may persist longer than initially thought, potentially extending wet conditions into spring 2024.
• The rainfall pattern will be irregular, characterized by heavy bursts and dry intervals, especially in mountainous regions, rather than steady precipitation, complicating short-term weather predictions.