Super-sized El Niño could cause more than 450,000 heat deaths by February, study suggests

Key Points:

• A new report from the Climate Impact Lab warns that nearly 451,000 people worldwide could die from El Niño-driven extreme heat between June 2026 and February 2027, with deaths expected to rise as the event continues into spring and summer.
• El Niño, now reaching record-breaking strength and combined with ongoing global warming, is projected to increase global land temperatures by 1.2°C above normal, causing 44% more days of extreme heat than usual.
• The most affected regions will be in the Global South, with Nigeria expected to suffer the highest heat-related death toll (31,400), followed by Indonesia, Sudan, India, Brazil, and the United States, which is projected to see 3,500 deaths.
• The report, which uses peer-reviewed methods but is not yet peer-reviewed itself, emphasizes the urgent need for preparedness measures such as early heat warnings, health action plans, cooling centers, and expanded healthcare coverage to prevent many of these deaths.
• Experts caution that while the death toll estimate is a modeling exercise rather than a definitive prediction, it highlights the severe consequences of extreme heat exacerbated by climate change and underscores the importance of immediate action.