Tariff refunds accelerated sharply in June as the US paid out almost $50 billion to businesses

Key Points:

• In June, the US issued $49.1 billion in tariff refunds to businesses, significantly exceeding the $23.6 billion collected in tariff revenue for the same month, following the Supreme Court's invalidation of President Trump's blanket tariffs.
• The sharp increase in refunds compared to May's nearly balanced refunds and revenues reflects ongoing adjustments after the February court decision that struck down tariffs imposed under the 1977 IEEPA law.
• A total of $166 billion in tariffs plus interest may be eligible for refunds, with the Trump administration expanding refund eligibility and granting exemptions that have reduced tariff revenue over recent months.
• Despite a slight revenue increase in June, monthly tariff revenue has generally declined since peaking at $31.35 billion in October, contributing to a growing US budget deficit now projected to exceed $2 trillion for the fiscal year.
• These developments undermine early expectations that tariffs would help balance the federal budget, as the US ran a $1.4 trillion deficit in the first nine months of the fiscal year, including a $120 billion deficit in June alone.