Tax season's big refunds are smaller than expected : NPR

Key Points:

• Despite sizable tax refunds this season, including an average refund increase of about $350 to $3,462, many Americans express lukewarm feelings, with 62% saying tax changes either harmed them or made no difference, according to a Bipartisan Policy Center survey.
• The anticipated $1,000 average refund boost projected by the White House under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has not materialized, partly because more tax relief may be benefiting taxpayers who owe money rather than those receiving refunds.
• Higher income taxpayers are seeing larger refund increases, aided by the raised SALT deduction cap to $40,000, but many tend to file later, potentially delaying the full impact on average refund figures.
• Elevated gas prices, driven by geopolitical tensions such as the war with Iran, are offsetting the financial benefits of tax refunds, leading some recipients to save their refunds rather than spend them.
• Overall, while tax refunds have increased modestly, economic factors and distribution of benefits have tempered public enthusiasm and limited the perceived impact of recent tax law changes.