Tesla announces HW4 Plus with doubled memory - will HW4 follow HW3 to the grave?

Key Points:

• Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced an upcoming "AI4.1 or AI4 Plus" upgrade to the company's self-driving computer, doubling RAM per chip from 16GB to 32GB and increasing total system memory to 64GB, with production expected next year pending Samsung's modifications.
• Musk reaffirmed that Tesla's HW3 hardware lacks the capability for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD), highlighting memory bandwidth as a critical limitation, and noted plans to retrofit around 4 million HW3-equipped vehicles.
• Tesla has already shipped an AI4.5 hardware revision earlier in 2026, moving from a two-chip to a three-chip design, indicating ongoing iterations despite claims that current AI4 hardware is sufficient for unsupervised FSD.
• The AI4 Plus upgrade aims to address current memory capacity and bandwidth constraints, suggesting that while AI4 hardware meets today's FSD requirements, future software demands may outpace its capabilities, raising concerns similar to those experienced with HW3.
• Industry observers remain skeptical of Tesla's assurances about hardware sufficiency for unsupervised driving, given past overpromises with HW3 and ongoing hardware revisions, highlighting uncertainty about Tesla's ability to deliver fully autonomous driving at scale with current technology.