Thank El Niño for NOAA’s new forecast for Atlantic hurricane season
CNN • • general
Key Points:
- NOAA forecasts a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with a 55% chance of fewer storms, influenced largely by the anticipated arrival of El Niño, which typically suppresses hurricane formation.
- The agency predicts 8 to 14 named storms, including 3 to 6 hurricanes, with up to 3 reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher), compared to the average season's 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes.
- El Niño, expected to develop early this summer, increases upper-atmosphere wind shear in the Atlantic, generally reducing storm activity, although recent seasons showed that warm ocean temperatures can counteract this effect.
- Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are currently above normal but significantly lower than the record highs seen in 2023 and 2024, leaving uncertainty about how much they will influence storm development later this season.
- The first tropical storm usually forms around June 20 and the first hurricane around August 11; early season storms, if any, are more likely to develop near the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic coast, with no tropical activity expected through May.