The 2026 blue wave, in charts: Data shows Senate Democrats won by bigger margins while Republicans lost ground
Key Points:
- Following the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats will control both the Senate and the House of Representatives, with 20 of 33 projected Senate races going to Democrats, including eight in states that voted for Trump in 2024.
- Seven states flipped from Republican to Democratic in Senate seats, while the races in Alaska and Mississippi remain toss-ups.
- Republican Senate candidates generally won by narrower margins compared to Trump's 2024 presidential margins, such as in West Virginia, Alabama, and Florida, where GOP margins were significantly reduced.
- Conversely, Democratic Senate candidates outperformed 2024 presidential margins, with average winning margins twice as large as Kamala Harris' margins in 2024, indicating stronger Democratic support in these races.
- In all states where voters switched from supporting Republicans in the 2024 presidential election to Democrats in the 2026 Senate elections, Democrats gained approximately 20 percentage points.