The chances of a rare 'super El Niño' occurring in 2026 just got higher. Here's how it could wreak havoc on the weather.

Key Points:

• The National Weather Service now forecasts an 82% chance of El Niño developing by July 2026, with a 96% chance it will last through the winter, significantly increasing the likelihood of altered global weather patterns.
• The probability of a rare and intense "super El Niño" occurring between November 2026 and January 2027 has risen to 37%, raising concerns about potentially extreme weather events in the U.S. and worldwide.
• A super El Niño, characterized by a 2°C rise in equatorial Pacific water temperatures, could lead to increased Pacific hurricane activity, cooler and wetter winters in the southern U.S., and possibly make 2026 or 2027 the warmest year on record.
• While El Niño typically shifts the Pacific jet stream southward, causing diverse regional impacts, the exact effects of a super El Niño are unpredictable but may include suppressed hurricanes in the Atlantic, more storms in the central and eastern Pacific, and altered monsoon patterns in Asia.
• Historically, super El Niños have occurred only four times since 1950, with the last one in 2015-2016, emphasizing the rarity and potential severity of such an event if it materializes in 2026.