The Danger in the Middle: Will Xi’s Purges Increase the Risk of War?
War on the Rocks • • world
Key Points:
- Since mid-2023, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has purged dozens of senior People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers, including key operational commanders, which may temporarily reduce the military's warfighting capabilities and planning effectiveness.
- The purges have consolidated Xi’s control over the military, diminishing the influence of senior officers and increasing his ability to order combat operations, potentially raising the risk of conflict over Taiwan in the medium term (late 2020s to early 2030s).
- New commanders appointed under Xi tend to be better educated and more joint-experience qualified, but with less power to oppose Xi’s decisions, which could lead to increased war optimism despite the risks involved.
- In the long term, after Xi’s departure,
