The Empire Putin Tried to Rebuild Is Coming Apart

Key Points:

• Armenia is moving away from Russian influence as it approaches parliamentary elections on June 7, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan leading a pro-Western party and openly distancing the country from Russia, particularly over the Ukraine conflict.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and other officials have responded with veiled threats, propaganda, and trade restrictions on Armenian goods, reflecting Moscow’s anxiety over losing Armenia’s allegiance.
• The deterioration of Russia-Armenia relations is largely due to Russia’s perceived betrayal during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, where Russian peacekeepers failed to protect the Armenian enclave against Azerbaijani forces.
• Russia’s influence is also waning in Azerbaijan, which has increasingly aligned with the West, highlighted by strong Azerbaijani support for Ukraine and cooperation agreements signed with President Zelensky.
• Former US President Donald Trump’s diplomatic efforts in the region have contributed to reducing Russian dominance, while Belarus’s Lukashenko remains a wild card, balancing between Russia and the West amid ongoing pressures from Putin.