The Energy Supply Shock of the Iran War Changes Everything
Key Points:
- The ongoing conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran is causing a prolonged energy crisis, particularly impacting Asian economies reliant on Persian Gulf oil and gas, leading to shortages, higher prices, and widespread rationing measures.
- Oil markets, once oversupplied, are now tight with prices expected to remain high throughout the year due to disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz and shut-in production, potentially pushing Brent crude prices above previous records.
- Natural gas supply has suffered a multi-year setback after Iran damaged Qatar’s LNG export capacity, resulting in sustained high prices and supply shortages, especially affecting poorer South and Southeast Asian countries.
- Coal use is rising globally as countries turn to it to offset natural gas shortages, with increased coal-fired power generation