The Geoeconomic Calculus

Key Points:

• The post-Cold War vision of peaceful international relations is challenged as countries increasingly use tariffs, sanctions, and export controls to pursue national security, marking the rise of geoeconomics where economic and security policies intertwine.
• Geoeconomics, long practiced by many nations, is now adopted by the world's largest economy, amplifying its global impact; control over key choke points like technology and critical commodities confers power but overuse risks backlash and loss of leverage.
• Experts emphasize the need for balanced policies that enhance economic security without undermining globalization, acknowledging that economic coercion can harm innovation and cohesion, yet resilience through strategic statecraft is crucial, especially for the US.
• Middle powers and regions like Sub-Saharan Africa face complex challenges and opportunities amid great power rivalry, with calls for strategic coalition-building and for Europe to assert itself more strongly in global affairs.
• While geopolitical competition reshapes trade cooperation, maintaining multilateral rules and institutions is vital to prevent disruptive conflicts and preserve the benefits of global economic integration, highlighting the need for resilience and restraint in geoeconomic strategies.