The Long War Is Coming and Trump Can’t Stop It
The Bulwark • • world
Key Points:
- The U.S. and Israel's strategy of targeting Iranian leadership disrupted ongoing negotiations, making future diplomatic engagement with Iran slower and more complex due to heightened operational security and mistrust.
- The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei led to a succession crisis, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei assuming power but lacking popular legitimacy and needing broader internal support, complicating potential settlement agreements.
- These factors mean that any negotiated settlement to end the conflict will take longer and likely require the U.S. to offer greater concessions to Iran than previously anticipated.
- The prolonged conflict will result in increased economic costs for the U.S., including damage from the war and oil market disruptions.
- The article suggests that the Trump administration may have underestimated these consequences when authorizing strikes against Iranian leadership, and that revealing negotiation demands prematurely is a strategic disadvantage.
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