The Strait of Hormuz offers a lesson in air denial

Key Points:

• Despite the U.S. striking over 10,000 Iranian targets and degrading Iran’s air defenses, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed due to Iran’s persistent drone and missile attacks, maintaining an air denial strategy.
• Iran’s strategy exploits a gap in U.S. Air Force doctrine between air superiority and air denial, using low-cost, mobile systems to contest control of the airspace near the strait without allowing full U.S. air dominance.
• The U.S. has achieved air superiority at medium and high altitudes over Iran but lacks control in the critical air littoral zone above the Strait of Hormuz, limiting its ability to protect commercial shipping lanes from Iranian threats.
• Iran’s successful use of drones and missiles to disrupt shipping has caused economic impacts, including rising gas prices and stock market corrections, pressuring the U.S. to reconsider the conflict’s continuation.
• Addressing this challenge requires the U.S. to invest in large-scale, low-cost, and attritable defense systems tailored for the air littoral environment, shifting focus from high-end platforms to persistent, distributed air defense capabilities.