'The system is likely to reach a breaking point': Major Italian volcano is speeding toward a transition, and a major eruption could be on the way

Key Points:

• A new study suggests Campi Flegrei, a volcanic caldera near Naples, is approaching a critical transition within the next decade, though it is unclear if this will result in an eruption or another geological change.
• The caldera, home to about 500,000 people, has shown increasing activity since 2005, with ground uplift and earthquakes accelerating at a rate that is itself accelerating, potentially reaching a breaking point around 2030 to 2034.
• Researchers used a physics-based model to identify a self-feeding pattern of accelerating seismicity and ground uplift driven by deep magmatic fluids fracturing the caldera's crust, but the exact nature and impact of the impending transition remain uncertain.
• The study, currently under peer review, aims to provide ongoing predictions for emergency management, though experts caution that predicting the timing or scale of any eruption remains difficult and past patterns may no longer be reliable indicators.
• This research highlights fundamental changes in Campi Flegrei's behavior, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring and updated risk assessments for the densely populated surrounding area.