The tide is turning in Russia-Ukraine war

Key Points:

• On May 17, over 500 Ukrainian drones breached Moscow’s air defenses, striking oil infrastructure, military plants, and residential areas, resulting in at least four deaths and a dozen injuries, marking a significant escalation in Ukraine's long-range drone campaign against Russia.
• Ukraine’s drone warfare has evolved into a highly effective strategy, using advanced AI-controlled unmanned vehicles to inflict heavy casualties on Russian forces, degrade military capacity, and disrupt daily life in Russia, while Russia struggles with outdated technology and high troop losses.
• Russia faces severe military and economic strain, with over 350,000 soldiers killed and its oil infrastructure repeatedly targeted, leading to reduced production capacity and economic contraction despite higher oil prices; meanwhile, Russia’s military performance is hindered by technological and manpower deficits.
• Despite ongoing fighting, Ukraine is gaining the upper hand, approaching military self-sufficiency and benefiting from increased EU financial support, while Russia’s spring offensive has failed, and Putin’s maximalist war aims face growing internal and external challenges.
• The risk of escalation remains as a cornered Putin may resort to hybrid attacks in Europe, raising the potential for miscalculation, but Ukraine and its allies remain committed to resisting Russian aggression, with Ukraine emerging as a significant military-technological power in Europe.