The War Over Prediction Markets Is Just Getting Started
WIRED • • business
Key Points:
- The US political battle over prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket is intensifying, with unusual alliances forming across party lines; conservatives and MAGA figures are split between supporting and opposing these platforms, which some see as shadow casinos, while others view them as legitimate financial markets.
- Kalshi operates nationwide and reported over $1.3 billion in trades related to the Super Bowl, whereas Polymarket was banned in 2022 but has since returned in limited form; both offer event contracts allowing users to trade on outcomes ranging from sports to financial prices.
- Advocates argue prediction markets democratize access to trading and provide accurate forecasting tools, while critics label them illegal gambling that is unregulated and untaxed; the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (
