The world is looking ahead toward a post-Iran oil market that offsets most Hormuz volumes

Key Points:

• Despite continuous U.S. military efforts, no alternative shipping corridor bypassing Iran's approved route through the Strait of Hormuz has been secured, as Iranian drones and missiles deter commercial vessels.
• On a recent day, no transits were recorded via the U.S.-backed route or associated "shadow fleets," while Iran's channel saw seven vessel crossings, indicating limited success for U.S. assurances of safe navigation.
• Several countries, including India and Japan, have restricted their commercial shipping through the strait due to security concerns following Iranian attacks, significantly impacting maritime traffic.
• To mitigate disruptions, Middle Eastern countries have increased reliance on land-based pipelines and alternative routes, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Syria, and Kuwait expanding pipeline networks and using rail and trucking to transport oil.
• Analysts from Goldman Sachs project that expanded pipeline capacity could insulate over 45% of pre-war Gulf oil exports by the end of next year, potentially rising to 75% by 2028, reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing regional tensions.