These Economists Nailed Their 2025 Forecast: Here's What They Say About 2026

Investopedia•January 2, 2026•business

Key Points:

A Vanguard-led team of economists accurately predicted key 2025 economic indicators, including a 4.4% unemployment rate, monthly job growth of 97,500, and a 3% increase in the Consumer Price Index, outperforming most of the 73 economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal.
Their 2025 forecast accounted for the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs and immigration policies, which contributed to higher inflation and a slower job market, aligning closely with actual outcomes.
For 2026, Vanguard expects the job market to improve, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.2% as businesses increase investments in AI and other projects, boosting labor demand.
Economic growth is projected to accelerate to a 2