Three months in, is Trump losing the war against Iran?

Key Points:

• Three months after initiating a military campaign against Iran, US President Donald Trump faces growing doubts about whether tactical successes can translate into a clear geopolitical victory, as Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear ambitions.
• Despite initial military blows to Iran's capabilities, Tehran's retaliation—including blocking the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional allies—has complicated US objectives, leading to a stalemate and heightened regional tensions.
• Trump confronts domestic pressures, including high gasoline prices and declining approval ratings, as his Republican Party struggles ahead of midterm elections, forcing him to weigh accepting a flawed diplomatic deal or escalating military actions.
• Iran's resilience and strategic leverage, particularly over global energy supplies, alongside the emergence of more hardline Iranian leadership, challenge Trump's goals of denuclearization and curbing regional proxy support, with European allies largely withholding support.
• Analysts warn that the conflict risks becoming a long-term strategic failure for the US, potentially damaging American influence globally more severely than past conflicts, while some defend Trump's campaign citing degraded Iranian military capabilities and closer Gulf state ties to the US.