Tokyo stocks hit record, oil and dollar ease on Middle East peace hopes
Key Points:
- Global stocks surged on Monday as hopes for a deal to end the Iran war increased risk appetite, although uncertainty about when the Strait of Hormuz would reopen tempered enthusiasm.
- Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude dropping over 6% to $97.75 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate down nearly 6%, reflecting optimism about a potential resolution to the conflict.
- Despite the drop, analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated due to ongoing supply chain disruptions caused by the conflict, with Barclays maintaining a $100 average Brent crude forecast for 2026.
- The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro and Japanese yen as safe-haven demand eased, while Asian markets, including Japan's Nikkei and Taiwan stocks, reached record highs.
- The conflict has influenced global rate expectations, with markets now fully pricing in a Federal Reserve rate hike by January 2027, reflecting concerns over inflation driven by higher energy prices.