Too close to call? Democratic internal poll shows David Jolly one point ahead of Byron Donalds

Key Points:

• Democrat David Jolly, newly nominated for Florida governor, is receiving support from the Democratic Governors Association, which highlights polling showing him narrowly leading Republican Byron Donalds in a state with a Republican registration advantage.
• The Hart Research Associates poll indicates Jolly leads 46% to 45% in an R+12 sample, with Jolly appealing to Hispanic voters, white women, and independents, while Donalds faces high unfavorability and weak support among key groups.
• Pollsters report that 18% of Republicans might cross over to vote for Jolly, compared to only 7% of Democrats potentially backing Donalds, though this crossover support may be optimistic given intra-party dynamics.
• Negative messaging against Donalds, focusing on his ties to charter schools and data center positions, resonates with a majority of voters and independents, raising doubts about his candidacy.
• Despite Donalds’ cash advantage and potential to frame Jolly as a radical Democrat, the race is shaping up to be competitive and could echo the tight contests Florida experienced eight years ago.