Traders are skeptical of Iran timeline for Strait of Hormuz reopening
CNBC • • world
Key Points:
- Iran claims it can restore the Strait of Hormuz to its prewar traffic levels within one month of reaching a peace deal with the U.S., but traders on prediction market Kalshi remain skeptical.
- Kalshi traders currently assign a 38% probability that traffic will return to normal by July 1, an increase from the previous 32% before recent reports, with normal defined as a seven-day moving average of at least 60 transits.
- Confidence rises for normalization by August 1, with traders giving a 60% chance, up from 50% prior to new information, though all odds are lower than the 50% chance estimated last weekend amid hopes of an imminent deal.
- Iranian state television reported a draft memorandum of understanding with the U.S., but the White House denies any such framework exists.
- CNBC discloses a commercial relationship with Kalshi, including customer acquisition and minority investment.