Tropical Storm Rachel

Key Points:

• Tropical Storm Rachel, downgraded from a Category 1 hurricane, is expected to bring increased risk of coastal flooding and widespread rain to Southern California this weekend and early next week, especially affecting south-facing beaches like Long Beach Peninsula and Catalina Island.
• Coastal flooding risk is heightened by an El Niño-driven Kelvin wave raising sea levels by 6 to 12 inches, with tides expected to be 1 to 1.5 feet above normal, potentially causing significant beach erosion and isolated damage.
• Rainfall chances in Los Angeles and Ventura counties are high (70%-90%) between Saturday and Tuesday, with the peak likelihood Sunday night through Monday, although rain amounts are expected to be light, reducing risks of debris flows or landslides.
• Sunday is forecasted to be windy with gusts of 20 to 35 mph, strong rip currents, high surf, and a low risk of thunderstorms, making beach and boating conditions hazardous.
• NOAA reports an 83% chance of a record-strong El Niño this year, which is linked to elevated ocean temperatures and sea levels, increasing the likelihood of wetter conditions and coastal impacts in Southern California, while recent extreme heat is expected to subside by the weekend.