Tropical Storm Rachel is behaving unusually. What that means for SoCal

Key Points:

• Tropical Storm Rachel is forecasted to make landfall in northern Baja California or San Diego County by Saturday night, potentially causing damaging coastal flooding and tropical storm-force winds in the region.
• Unusually warm ocean temperatures, driven by El Niño and a marine heat wave, are allowing Rachel to maintain or increase strength as it approaches the cooler waters off the West Coast, a rare event for eastern Pacific storms.
• Coastal flooding is the primary concern, with high tides already running significantly above normal levels, combined with swells of 3 to 6 feet and rip currents; a coastal flood advisory remains in effect for multiple Southern California counties.
• Rainfall is expected to be light to moderate in much of Southern California, but areas like the Mojave Desert, Inland Empire, and parts of San Diego County face a moderate risk of flash flooding, with possible minor flooding of the San Diego River.
• Tropical storms are rare in Southern California, with only two recorded at tropical storm strength in modern history; the current El Niño is very strong and may increase the likelihood of significant weather impacts this season.