Trump has fallen into a pattern of threats and walk-backs on Iran

Key Points:

• President Trump has repeatedly threatened severe military action against Iran, including strikes on power plants and seizing oil infrastructure, but often pulls back at the last moment to allow more time for diplomacy, influenced by Gulf allies' appeals.
• Iran appears willing to endure significant strategic pain, betting it can outlast U.S. pressure amid dwindling American munitions and domestic opposition to the war ahead of the midterm elections.
• Trump’s pattern of aggressive rhetoric followed by restraint has drawn criticism for being erratic and possibly reflecting doubts within his administration about the effectiveness of military force alone to end the conflict.
• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman played a key role in persuading Trump to delay planned strikes, warning that escalation could destabilize the global economy and provoke retaliatory attacks on U.S. Gulf allies.
• Public opinion is largely against the war, with significant skepticism across party lines, and some Republican lawmakers advocate for maintaining current sanctions and focusing on Iran’s nuclear program rather than further military escalation.