Trump-Xi summit has high stakes for Taiwan

Key Points:

• President Donald Trump has shown increased ambivalence toward Taiwan since returning to the White House, raising concerns about potential shifts in U.S. support ahead of his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
• Although Trump authorized an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan in December, delivery has been delayed, and he has discussed the sale with Xi, while pressuring Taiwan to invest in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing and buy American energy products.
• U.S. officials, including Senator Marco Rubio, assert that U.S. policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged, but China aims to make Taiwan a central topic in talks with Trump, seeking possible concessions on arms sales or diplomatic interactions.
• Taiwan recently approved $25 billion in arms purchases amid pressure from the U.S. to increase defense spending, but concerns persist about the stability of U.S.-Taiwan relations given Trump’s transactional approach and China’s aggressive posture.
• Experts note Taiwan’s critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain as a factor likely to limit drastic changes in U.S. policy, with the outcome of the Xi-Trump summit expected to hinge on their public statements regarding Taiwan.