Trump’s Iran Deal Has Collapsed, Leaving the U.S. With Few Good Options

Key Points:

• President Trump initially predicted the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran would last "four to five weeks," but over four months later, the conflict is intensifying with no end in sight.
• Recent escalations include Iranian attacks on merchant ships near the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian military targets, and Iran's declaration of the strait's closure, prompting Trump to reinstate a U.S. blockade and impose a 20 percent toll on cargo.
• The June 18 memorandum of understanding (MOU) intended to reopen the strait in exchange for economic relief to Iran has failed, as hard-liners in Iran insist on controlling shipping traffic and charging tolls, leveraging the strait to exert global pressure.
• Military efforts have not succeeded in overthrowing the Iranian regime or halting its nuclear and missile programs, and the U.S. faces limited options without risking unpopular and large-scale troop deployments.
• The ongoing conflict highlights the challenges of limited war strategies without clear exit plans, with Iran maintaining its threat capabilities and control over a critical global oil transit route despite U.S. actions.