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Trump’s tariffs promised trouble for China, though Goldman Sachs notes growth of 4.5%
Fortune • • business
Key Points:
- China's growth target of 4.5% to 5% appears on track, outperforming U.S. GDP growth rates of 2.5% and 2.2% in the first two quarters of 2026.
- Despite slower headline growth, the U.S. remains the largest economy with a significantly higher GDP per capita ($95,000) compared to China’s $15,370, according to the IMF.
- China is tightening its fiscal stance, with a narrowing augmented fiscal deficit from 11% of GDP in December 2025 to 9.4% in September 2026, while U.S. deficits remain higher and less targeted for reduction.
- Fiscal policy in China is expected to loosen in Q4 2026, but the full-year augmented fiscal deficit estimate has been lowered to 10.0% of GDP from 11.5%.
- Trade tensions persist with tariffs between the U.S. and China remaining elevated; Chinese tariffs on U.S. exports are at 31.9%, while U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports stand at 35.2% as of August 2026.
